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Oct 27, 2012
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. >> reporter: president obama still leads in ohio by just two points, but in five ohio polls. >> if you add the same result five times in ohio, which you do, you know he is going to carry ohio. >> reporter: but if romney takes ohio and florida, north carolina, virginia, he could win. but so could president obama, even if romney wins ohio and those other states. the tiebreaker would be colorado. whoever wins colorado in that one scenario wins the white house. and raj and jesse, in the latest about in news poll, colorado was tied. back to you. >> thank you very much, steve. >>> let's bring in our chief meteorologist jeff ranieri. and it's supposed to be beautiful. we're here. the weekend is here. >> i know, i know. this is good timing for a lot of us here as that doppler radar scans around, finding dry conditions across the greater northern california region. and one of the things that really helped to get all this sunshine in here, not only inland, but at the coast is this wind out of the north, and also slightly offshore about 5 to 10 miles per hour. that's all we needed to give us
. >> reporter: president obama still leads in ohio by just two points, but in five ohio polls. >> if you add the same result five times in ohio, which you do, you know he is going to carry ohio. >> reporter: but if romney takes ohio and florida, north carolina, virginia, he could win. but so could president obama, even if romney wins ohio and those other states. the tiebreaker would be colorado. whoever wins colorado in that one scenario wins the white house. and raj and...
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Oct 29, 2012
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i know talking to the obama campaign. i know they think it's not that close, but they know it's tight. governor hickenlooper, you start, what's decisive? what tips the scales in your state and in this election? >> well i think if you look at the mess that president obama inherited and i mean losing 800,000 jobs a month, month after month, the first few months of his presidency. he's turned it around, got 32 months of job creation, 5.2 million jobs. the national export initiative, exports were up 38%. i think people are going to hear that and i think they're going to recognize that governor romney's plan of adding $2 trillion to military spending and at the same time promising $5 trillion of tax cuts to largely skewed to the wealthier parts of the population, without any specifics, right? i mean it's like trying to sell a pig in a poke. what are those deductions and tax credits he's going to get rid of? are we going to lose the home mortgage deduction? the deduction for giving for philanthropic organizations? like churches
i know talking to the obama campaign. i know they think it's not that close, but they know it's tight. governor hickenlooper, you start, what's decisive? what tips the scales in your state and in this election? >> well i think if you look at the mess that president obama inherited and i mean losing 800,000 jobs a month, month after month, the first few months of his presidency. he's turned it around, got 32 months of job creation, 5.2 million jobs. the national export initiative, exports...
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Nov 3, 2012
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the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't think that makes, you know, nate silver or myself or anyone else who stairs at the polls and says obama is favored, you know, being incredibly insightful. polls are right and pollsters get the credit. if obama loses i don't think nate silver should be panned out. i don't think either. >> never pan you. >> you could use your wizardry to answer this question. isn't it quite possible at this point in terms of electoral college when you're looking at the key battleground states the president has a lead in most them. isn't it possible the president w
the poll says obama will win in the swing states. nate silver says obama is ahead in the swing states and win the electoral college. the polls are usually right. the model acknowledges the polls could be wrong. that chance is at 15% based on the same sort of analysis i gave earlier that look there are a few examples when the polls are off this much. ken buck, sharon engel, hilary and obama in new hampshire but more the exception than rule therefore obama is the favorite. if obama wins i don't...
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Nov 4, 2012
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the state polls, the battle ground state polls suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them but the national polls have a tie. it is striking to see this difference. it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or tied in so many of the states. could the polls be wrong? they could. whether they are, we are wait dog find out. >>chris: you have been traveling the country if weeks and months, jeff, your sense of where this stands 48 hours out? >> much different in battle ground states because of the advertising. people in ohio and people in iowa, florida, and virginia, have a different sense of the race. the reason pennsylvania is in play because there has not been a lot of advertising. in the battleground states and i was in ohio and wisconsin and iowa and what you pick up, there is a real sense of enthusiasm for the romney campaign. i did not run into one republican party who is not happy about electing mitt romney opposed to someone to beat president obama. that is a significant change. on other side, the excitement and enthusiasm i
the state polls, the battle ground state polls suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them but the national polls have a tie. it is striking to see this difference. it is sobering if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or tied in so many of the states. could the polls be wrong? they could. whether they are, we are wait dog find out. >>chris: you have been traveling the country if weeks and months, jeff, your sense of where this stands 48 hours...
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Nov 1, 2012
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most of the polls show obama ahead. i tend to believe that obama has a better get out the vote organization. the republicans have proven in wisconsin and n the recall that they can play on that turf which makes ohio very tough state to call. i personally i would give the edge to obama, but that is me reading tea leaves as you said. i do believe in the end ohio we'll be looking at the winner of ohio as the next president of the united states. >> greta: i think everyone feels terrible what is happening to the eastern seaboard. it's gone farther west on the hurricane and inflicted blizzard. but politically, is this something that is to the advantage of the president. can they actually move a point or two? >> i think first, it froze the race. there has not been a lot of movement. the media has been focused on sandy and less on the presidential campaign. second of all, think it's going to affect, it can affect turnout but most places like new jersey and new york. i'm not sure it's going to have an effect. on the other hand t
most of the polls show obama ahead. i tend to believe that obama has a better get out the vote organization. the republicans have proven in wisconsin and n the recall that they can play on that turf which makes ohio very tough state to call. i personally i would give the edge to obama, but that is me reading tea leaves as you said. i do believe in the end ohio we'll be looking at the winner of ohio as the next president of the united states. >> greta: i think everyone feels terrible what...
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a detroit news/wdiv poll shows president obama leading 48% to 45%, which is within the poll's 3.78 margin of error. but a new "detroit free press"/wxyz poll has president obama leading by six points, 48% to 42%. now, half of those polled said that the rescue of gm and chrysler was a deciding factor in their support and 2/3 of those people backed president obama. robert reich, it seems like michigan voters have figured out who they want to give credit to for the auto bailout. >> yes, they have. although romney and ryan are doing everything they possibly can, lawrence, to confuse voters, to dissemble, to claim credit for the bailout, to actually say, believe it or not, and unfortunately some people believe big lies when they're told over and over again, that romney was in favor of the bailout and that somehow, by some stretch of the imagination the president is responsible for shrinking chrysler and shrinking gm and sending the jobs out to china. that's actually what they are saying right now. i mean, it takes lies to a new height of prevarication. >> let's listen to the help president obam
a detroit news/wdiv poll shows president obama leading 48% to 45%, which is within the poll's 3.78 margin of error. but a new "detroit free press"/wxyz poll has president obama leading by six points, 48% to 42%. now, half of those polled said that the rescue of gm and chrysler was a deciding factor in their support and 2/3 of those people backed president obama. robert reich, it seems like michigan voters have figured out who they want to give credit to for the auto bailout. >>...
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mister obama carried it easily in 2008... but - polls showing this time around, things could be different... with republican challenger mitt romney gaining ground with independents. "he's been running around saying he's got a five-point plan for the economy. turns out it's a one-point plan. folks at the very top get to play by a very different set of rules than you do." it was kissimmee, florida for mitt romney. the g-o-p presidential hopeful..telling supporters the president failed to fulfill his campaign promises. "he promised that his would be a post partisan presidency. but, we've him over these last four years that he's been divisive and and demonized almost every group that opposed him." the v-p candidates making the rounds, too. joe biden in virginia..targeting the republican ticket. "i've never seen two candidates for the highest office of the land who are more negative about the state of our country." paul ryan in ohio...where recent polls give the president a slight advantage. hope and change has become anger, frust
mister obama carried it easily in 2008... but - polls showing this time around, things could be different... with republican challenger mitt romney gaining ground with independents. "he's been running around saying he's got a five-point plan for the economy. turns out it's a one-point plan. folks at the very top get to play by a very different set of rules than you do." it was kissimmee, florida for mitt romney. the g-o-p presidential hopeful..telling supporters the president failed...
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a poll putting president obama up 50-45 and then public policy polling, 50-45 those are both five-point leads and then the university of cincinnati has obama with a two-point lead. as you look at that, as far as polling goes six days before an election if we weren't worried about being wrong, etc. we'll put that in the books. >> i don't know if we'll put it in the books. ohio is one of these volatile states. you just want know it can change. you don't look at the 5-5-2 today, you look at the days that the president has been ahead in the poll, even in the margin of error. >> cenk: so let's get a sense of where they stand. obama is leading 48-45 according to the detroit news. according to epic--is that your poll. >> that's a poll i took earlier today. six-point poll. >> cenk: and not michael's poll. 48-42, six-point lead. when you go to wisconsin 51-43 and 51-43. that's marquette. >> that just came out. that's a poll that a lot of journalists in wisconsin--i just talked to someone in wisconsin lee berquist said we're all waiting for that poll. that poll is definitive. >> cenk: so wisconsi
a poll putting president obama up 50-45 and then public policy polling, 50-45 those are both five-point leads and then the university of cincinnati has obama with a two-point lead. as you look at that, as far as polling goes six days before an election if we weren't worried about being wrong, etc. we'll put that in the books. >> i don't know if we'll put it in the books. ohio is one of these volatile states. you just want know it can change. you don't look at the 5-5-2 today, you look at...
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even if your polls, president obama retains the advantage but it has been used to shrink it. just what you said. >> first of all, it has been shrunk by ordinary americans looking at the president's handling of the situation and, feeling that he is coming up way short and my comment about looking at this, i'm looking at this from the perspective of having been in the white house and i cannot imagine that at 4:05 in the afternoon the situation room got word of an attack on an american facility in benghazi they wouldn't have taken it to the president and the national security advisor and the president would not have been engaged and i take the president's word. >> thank you, karl, you said... >> chris: wait, let karl finish. >> blaming the -- >> juan, hold on, let karl finish. >> i did. >> no, he didn't. he didn't. >> no. >> chris: let him finish. >> if the president ordered the assistance be given and none was given until well after 7 hours later. if the cia at the clan des type annex were told three times don't engage and we had men disregard the orders of their superiors and
even if your polls, president obama retains the advantage but it has been used to shrink it. just what you said. >> first of all, it has been shrunk by ordinary americans looking at the president's handling of the situation and, feeling that he is coming up way short and my comment about looking at this, i'm looking at this from the perspective of having been in the white house and i cannot imagine that at 4:05 in the afternoon the situation room got word of an attack on an american...
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the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it is -- seems striking that there would be this difference. and we don't know. but, it is sobering, if you are a romney supporter to think he is trailing or, just tied, in so man
the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no...
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be passing obama. he probably still does. look at the national poll. you cannot, if gallup is anywhere near right. gallup has him up six. say he is up three. you can't win national election by three points and lose in the electoral college. this is uncon zeable. if you win in popular vote you lose electoral in the year 2000 the margin is fraction of fraction of fraction of 1% of one state if florida. the national polls they are disconnected, you can't have a disconnect that large between the national and electoral college. >> i find ohio numbers hard to believe. if it is tight, obama only needs to win by one point. there is dismisssiveness about what i'll say but it's true, the ground game is vastly superior romney has in ohio, add a cupm of points to any poll. >> does this change it? >> the storm? no. i don't think so. in the situation, i think that you have to remember from the date obama got elected, obama for america has been building campaign targeted campaign. >> bret: thank you very much. next up, what the administration said, what it knew about
be passing obama. he probably still does. look at the national poll. you cannot, if gallup is anywhere near right. gallup has him up six. say he is up three. you can't win national election by three points and lose in the electoral college. this is uncon zeable. if you win in popular vote you lose electoral in the year 2000 the margin is fraction of fraction of fraction of 1% of one state if florida. the national polls they are disconnected, you can't have a disconnect that large between the...
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obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for the president today. it will be more positive, less of the negative tone, ripping to mitt romney. this is his final case to what he did in wisconsin today, talking about what he would do in a second term. laying out that he wants to finish the change he talked about in the last four years. he did go negative on romney. not giving it up. he said romney claiming to be an agent of change and he knocked millions of people off the health insurance. he would go backward on wall street reform. obama landed in nevada now. he has three stops in wisconsin. six in ohio
obama only got to 13%. they're even in the polls. aapparently they're even even in get out the vote effort. they're down to wire. no indication it will change in five days. >> dana: carl, thank you. we'll go to ed henry, with president obama in las vegas. ed, we have a new nickname for you coined by greg gutfeld. we thought you desevened one. election ed. take it away. >> reporter: i like it. that's great. just like campaign carl. bottom line, they are promising a new message for...
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and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses sacramento and sends every k through 12 dollar straight to our local schools... every school. for them. for all of us. vote yes on thirty-eight. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, and of course, pennsylvania. these three states haven't been given much time or attention by the media or the money spenders until lately. and that's because th
and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. this is hayden. he's five years old. that's elizabeth. and that's skyler... and his mom, nancy. they're just a few of the californians who took it on themselves to send you a message about what they need to restore years of cuts to their schools. prop thirty-eight. thirty-eight raises billions in new revenue - bypasses...
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Nov 1, 2012
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and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan, minnesota, and of course, pennsylvania. these three states haven't been given much time or attention by the media or the money spenders until lately. and that's because the romney camp and their cohorts in the super pac world announce they're now going to start advertising there. they're pouring in over 4 million bucks in pennsylvania, 2 million in michigan, and about $1 million in minnesota. well, the obama campaign has said they're going to match all that, go to the air waves to match one that. what we're watching is both sides probably spinning their case. republicans say they're seizing new opportunities, in other words, they
and a new npr poll has romney up one, 48/47 but the npr poll also finds that president obama has a four-point lead in the battleground states, 50-46. we'll be right back. joe," and i will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was, of course, david axelrod, famous for his mustache. he's with the obama campaign, sounding very bullish i should say on their chances, obama's chance of carrying michigan,...
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you have battleground polls showing a small, narrow obama lead. it is a very different state to get a grasp on. all that being said when you look at the battleground map and focus on the key states that i think the obama campaign is focused on, with key firewalls in wisconsin, ohio, virginia, florida, those are the states that romney must win to win this election, in particular, ohio, virginia, florida. you stop him in any one of those three states, president obama stays president. so that's the strategy. you don't want to bleed yourself so much, even with the amount of money both campaigns have, that you actually make it easier for the other side to make inroads. >> i'm out of time but i want to ask you each really, really quickly for your guy, on the democratic side, chris, where are we going to see the president going over the weekend, the last weekend of this campaign? >> that's obvious, ohio, ohio, ohio. >> ohio, ohio, ohio. how about you, robert? where is romney going? >> ohio and most likely he will end his campaign in new hampshire. new ha
you have battleground polls showing a small, narrow obama lead. it is a very different state to get a grasp on. all that being said when you look at the battleground map and focus on the key states that i think the obama campaign is focused on, with key firewalls in wisconsin, ohio, virginia, florida, those are the states that romney must win to win this election, in particular, ohio, virginia, florida. you stop him in any one of those three states, president obama stays president. so that's...
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i went to the polling station and pulled back the curtain and voted for barack obama. >> sean: joining me now with reaction from americans for prosperity jennifer steve >> gives me free birth control and. >> that a all we need. the president is not the first one to use virgin voting humor, right? >> really. >> don't you remember? don't you remember who said i know what it feels like to vote republican for the first time? it actually hurts a little bit but then. >> sean: who said that? >> then it feels just great. >> ronald reagan. >> sean: he did not! he did not! >> i need to fact check that. fact check that. >> sean: i have to fact check that. was that a regan ad? >> ronald reagan. he was quoting a line. >> he was a quoting. >> he was talking to someone about being a democrat. talking about being a democrat and then crossing the line and voting republican. >> i don't find this ad insulting at all. what i find insulting that the president of the united states allows the benito attack to happen and allows a united states navy seal to die after he calls for backup and nobody from the whi
i went to the polling station and pulled back the curtain and voted for barack obama. >> sean: joining me now with reaction from americans for prosperity jennifer steve >> gives me free birth control and. >> that a all we need. the president is not the first one to use virgin voting humor, right? >> really. >> don't you remember? don't you remember who said i know what it feels like to vote republican for the first time? it actually hurts a little bit but then....
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of the state polls that are leaning obama. is it possible that we are headed for another 2000 where you could have romney win the popular vote in this particular case and obama win the electoral vote? >> we could. i think it is a small chance because i think brit is right when you have if the margin is as big nationally as it appears in the national polls then you will have the state polls follow. we may have something else in play here, though. which is we are endowing all of these polls with the presix they don't have. take for example, ohio. there have been 21 polls since the first debate. in 16 of them, romney has led among in dependents by an average of 13 points. obama has led among independents in two and two polls they didn't break it out by republican, democrat or independent. it is hard to believe if romney is leading among republicans and by independents that he is not going to win. >> chris: one last question. you have the map like it is set in stone but you hear talk about the possibility there could be new states
of the state polls that are leaning obama. is it possible that we are headed for another 2000 where you could have romney win the popular vote in this particular case and obama win the electoral vote? >> we could. i think it is a small chance because i think brit is right when you have if the margin is as big nationally as it appears in the national polls then you will have the state polls follow. we may have something else in play here, though. which is we are endowing all of these polls...
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and these tight swing state polls you see no lift at all in the obama camp pain, -- campaign. >> here's the argue. they make. he is still ahead in ohio and wisconsin, still ahead in what they call their fire wall. and even if you give romney all the swing states that they think they're going to win -- virginia, north carolina, florida -- that still only gets him to 248. throw the colorado, 257 electoral votes, needs 2 70 to win. >> couple things about the firewall. you have to question, is obama really ahead in ohio when everyone seems to acknowledge romney's big advantage among independents? this is true of a bunch of swing states. there's a question about who is really ahead. but the other issue is, this is a well-known incumbent late in the race. he is probably persuaded most of the people he is going persuade and his campaign speeches are telling you that. it's a fiercely partisan ideological message he is driving. he is not talking to independents. >> let's get a clip of that. we want to give you an illustration of what james just pointed out. >> not a five point plan by governor r
and these tight swing state polls you see no lift at all in the obama camp pain, -- campaign. >> here's the argue. they make. he is still ahead in ohio and wisconsin, still ahead in what they call their fire wall. and even if you give romney all the swing states that they think they're going to win -- virginia, north carolina, florida -- that still only gets him to 248. throw the colorado, 257 electoral votes, needs 2 70 to win. >> couple things about the firewall. you have to...
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it showed barack obama as a commander in chief. the gallup poll was knocked off. it was his best poll. it showed the two competing businesses. not only did you have chris christie out there, but you also have bob mcdonnell of west virginia, another republican surrogate, who said the obama administration's response has been incredibly fast. >> i wouldn't go that far. they came in separately and they left separately. but sometimes governors have to do what governors do and presidents have to do what presidents do. i get that. and i think for the moment, your man probably got some. john, i want to ask you, i've been reading in the newspapers -- you correct me if i'm wrong. your superpack and other republican super packs have put $4 million into pennsylvania. team obama, only $625,000. for $4 million, jonathan, you want a rate of return better than a utility executive. you want to actually win the race in that state. >> we wouldn't be spending the money if we didn't think that there were real opportunities in michigan, pennsylvania, and minnesota, as well as wisconsin
it showed barack obama as a commander in chief. the gallup poll was knocked off. it was his best poll. it showed the two competing businesses. not only did you have chris christie out there, but you also have bob mcdonnell of west virginia, another republican surrogate, who said the obama administration's response has been incredibly fast. >> i wouldn't go that far. they came in separately and they left separately. but sometimes governors have to do what governors do and presidents have...
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i'm not sure the same could be said for mitt romney or president obama. in an event like this where a number of states could be looking very, very tough weather conditions that would make it difficult to get to the polls, whose voters are more jazzed to ensure they do? >> the biggest enthusiasm gap we've seen is one from 2008 for president obama compared to that now for president obama. the economy's not doing well, voters reagent to that, and so you're beginning to see roars -- reports of the republican enthuse yam. when i was in school, teachers used to tell us you got to pray, cross your fingers for rain so all the elderly folks don't vote against the school budget because they don't have kids in the school anymore. neil: on the notion, it's a given -- being political correct here, the storms could benefit romney more than the president. we'll see how it goes. i see the logic to it. what do people do in stas who can't vote. extend voting hours? is this a vote extending into november 7th? it's mess ri; right? >> it could get messy. it would be a state-b
i'm not sure the same could be said for mitt romney or president obama. in an event like this where a number of states could be looking very, very tough weather conditions that would make it difficult to get to the polls, whose voters are more jazzed to ensure they do? >> the biggest enthusiasm gap we've seen is one from 2008 for president obama compared to that now for president obama. the economy's not doing well, voters reagent to that, and so you're beginning to see roars -- reports...
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Oct 31, 2012
10/12
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take a look at the latest national polls of the president obama has just a one-point lead among likely voters. three new swing state polls show the president still in the lead, although with a margin that is shrinking in florida, virginia and ohio. and instead of campaigning, the president went to the red cross in washington, d.c., yesterday. >> this is a tough time for a lot of people. millions of folks all across the eastern seaboard. but america is tougher. and we're tougher because we pull together, we leave nobody behind, we make sure that we respond as a nation and remind ourselves that whenever an american is in need, all of us stand together to make sure that we're providing the help that's necessary. >> mitt romney will resume a full campaign schedule today, stumping in florida. he held a disaster relief event yesterday in ohio. >> we've got people right now that are having some hard times because of this terrible hurricane and the storm that followed it, and your generosity will make a difference. so i want to thank you. >> i want to bring in usa today's washington bureau chi
take a look at the latest national polls of the president obama has just a one-point lead among likely voters. three new swing state polls show the president still in the lead, although with a margin that is shrinking in florida, virginia and ohio. and instead of campaigning, the president went to the red cross in washington, d.c., yesterday. >> this is a tough time for a lot of people. millions of folks all across the eastern seaboard. but america is tougher. and we're tougher because we...
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Nov 2, 2012
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and in wisconsin, the polling average has mr. obama ahead by more, by five points. then at 10:00 eastern time, polls will be closed in all of those states and we'll be closing polls in the 10:00 eastern time in that hour in the states that you see blinking right here. these four states. of those four states, iowa, montana, nevada, and utah, two of them are going to be watched really closely. those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states f
and in wisconsin, the polling average has mr. obama ahead by more, by five points. then at 10:00 eastern time, polls will be closed in all of those states and we'll be closing polls in the 10:00 eastern time in that hour in the states that you see blinking right here. these four states. of those four states, iowa, montana, nevada, and utah, two of them are going to be watched really closely. those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right...
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Oct 30, 2012
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our poll yesterday found a 47-47 split between romney and obama of unlikely voters. we had had obama with a significant lead at the end of the summer and in the aftermath of the political conventions. but the first debate changed that dramatically as a poll we took a few days afterwards showed. but i think that mr. silver is making a broader point, which is the underlying divisions in the public -- i'm talking about ideological and partisan -- are deeply rooted and it is not true that everybody has made a decision and that the public is totally locked up. but the fundamental contours of the 50-50 split in there country are kind of wired into us right now and that provides some kind of anchor to the polls that i think is consistent with his analysis. host: what about the impact of this storm on polling with only one week to go? guest: we are taking a chose look at this. our most recent poll finished interviewing sun night. -- sunday night and we were working on it yesterdayat this. our most recent poll finished interviewing sun night. -- sunday night and we were worki
our poll yesterday found a 47-47 split between romney and obama of unlikely voters. we had had obama with a significant lead at the end of the summer and in the aftermath of the political conventions. but the first debate changed that dramatically as a poll we took a few days afterwards showed. but i think that mr. silver is making a broader point, which is the underlying divisions in the public -- i'm talking about ideological and partisan -- are deeply rooted and it is not true that everybody...
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Oct 27, 2012
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you average out the polling president obama has a two or three point lead. we haven't had much new polling in the last week. but the race in the public polling narrowed -- we've gone through ups and downs for much of the year president obama has led in the vast majority of public polls but his lead was more substantial in the first part of the year. it narrowed t after paul ryan was picked for the republican ticket. it opened up a little bit after the conventions. and now it's back down to, like i said, in that one to three point range after the first debate where you saw a lot of narrowing here and other states. but if you look in the context of the battleground, we're one of the states where president obama in one of the eight or nine states that are being contested. so there is a potential firewall for president obama if you look at ohio and wisconsin and nevada and iowa but it's only potential because all those states are very close. so we're seeing a pretty fears republican effort as well to flip wisconsin. that would have a dramatic impact on the elect
you average out the polling president obama has a two or three point lead. we haven't had much new polling in the last week. but the race in the public polling narrowed -- we've gone through ups and downs for much of the year president obama has led in the vast majority of public polls but his lead was more substantial in the first part of the year. it narrowed t after paul ryan was picked for the republican ticket. it opened up a little bit after the conventions. and now it's back down to,...
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Oct 31, 2012
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the obama campaign tells me that he's consistently led two to four points in their internal polling. you might say it's spin, but these two campaigns are seeing very different data. >> do you trust these people that are giving you these numbers? are they just giving you numbers, or do you really believe them? which of these people are the most credible when it comes to numbers when you match them up against other evidence? >> one of the things that the romney campaign was suggesting, just about an hour ago on a conference call that they had, the romney pollster, neil newhouse, was saying that he doesn't buy some of these national polls, because he was just pointing out that the quinnipiac "new york times" poll, and said that was weighted more heavily toward registered voters than likely voters and thought that it sort of overshowed a little bit of enthusiasm for democrats, and i keep hearing this over and over again, from republicans, chris, and that is, they don't believe that obama voters will turn out as much as the obama campaign expects. these sides do believe very different thi
the obama campaign tells me that he's consistently led two to four points in their internal polling. you might say it's spin, but these two campaigns are seeing very different data. >> do you trust these people that are giving you these numbers? are they just giving you numbers, or do you really believe them? which of these people are the most credible when it comes to numbers when you match them up against other evidence? >> one of the things that the romney campaign was...
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Oct 27, 2012
10/12
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the latest poll showing governor romney closing the gap. he is is now tied with president obama be. each of them with 49% of wisconsin's likely voters. the national polls painting an even grimmer picture for the president. this poll showing governor romney ahead by three. the governor with 50% of the vote and president obama with 47%. dick morris joins us. good evening, dick. >> good. i heard a great joke yesterday. if obama is reelected imagine the mess he will inherit. >> okay. i'm sure that the obama campaign will like that but the romney cam -- won't like that but the romney camp will enjoy that a bit. looking at the polls tonight, wisconsin in four years ago, president obama stormed the state by 14 points. this does seem to be a seismic shift in the state. >> there is. wisconsin has become a republican state by virtue of the incredibly intense organizational efforts there of governor scott walker's people, americans for prosperity and various other political groups that have really mobilized the free market forces in the state. they have been through a recall election. a senate
the latest poll showing governor romney closing the gap. he is is now tied with president obama be. each of them with 49% of wisconsin's likely voters. the national polls painting an even grimmer picture for the president. this poll showing governor romney ahead by three. the governor with 50% of the vote and president obama with 47%. dick morris joins us. good evening, dick. >> good. i heard a great joke yesterday. if obama is reelected imagine the mess he will inherit. >> okay....